Messages

1

Trading Analysis / Re: IDENTIFYING an OPPURTUNITY

« on: October 18, 2022, 12:46:11 pm »

STRATEGY 2:

There are many strategies of course - you don't have to use options; you can trade it with straight futures as well.

But let's say this is something like Crude Oil.  And because of our east-bloc friend and his silly war, the implied volatility on Crude Oil, and therefore options prices, are exorbitantly expensive.  In that case buying three options, or straight futures, might be too much for my account.  And shorting options will require like $36,000 !!??? 

Well, now I just use a less risky strategy!!  I use a BULL CALL SPREAD.  So I buy an option ATM, and then I sell an option one strike higher OTM.   


Now my risk is only $250 per contract.  Depending on my account, maybe I'll now enter 5 contracts - for a margin requirement of $1,250

And if prices moves only slightly up - lets say in the next 2/3 days:


I am sitting on a small $50 profit.  And so now I sell four (4) of my contracts:


And this is how my remaining position looks like:
I am sitting on $250 profit overall
I can lose about $30 on this trade - but it is a long way off
I can afford to let my "potential" winner run - I can make $420 here, and only risk $30

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Trading Analysis / Re: IDENTIFYING an OPPURTUNITY

« on: October 18, 2022, 12:20:11 pm »

Strategy:

I want to enter with THREE (3) contracts.  I'll use a CALL option for it limits my downside risk in case something catastrophic happens. 

(A more risk seeking guy may enter this market by selling three naked PUT options below the #3 point and then try to profit from the time decay.  So then even if the market does not  move higher - it can just stay level, he will still make a profit.  But I'm not going to take that chance - if I had a large account, or a bit more adventurous, I could have - but I will wait with those kind of strategies until I have got a more solid, established, trading account)

I then want to take profit on TWO (2) of my contracts the same distance away as my STOP:


The strategy is simple..  If I can take profit on 2 contracts, then for the first, I pocket the money - it is my reward for taking the risk.
For the second contract, it buys me my stop - so the profit on this contract pays me, in advance, for the stop on the remaining contract. 

My stop does not change, but the loss between my entry and my stop, has been refunded.  So I will not take a loss on this trade. 

And now I just wait - I'm letting it run - let's see how high it can go - if it is a winner I am going to make some serious money here.  If it turns out to be a loser, then I had a FREE RIDE (for my stop has been pre-paid).

Of course, if it just turns around and never hits my profit target, then I have a loss on three contracts.  Write it off as experience, we'll try again next time...

3

Trading Analysis / Re: IDENTIFYING an OPPURTUNITY

« on: October 18, 2022, 11:58:29 am »

Trading Plan

All I have is a signal.  But what I CAN DO is I can clearly identify an entry and an exit.  If that market turns around and goes down below my #3 point - then the moment that happens my entry pattern - my 1-2-3 is null and void.  It cancels.  It does not exist any more.

So I will enter NOW - buy this market!!

If the market trades below #3, I will EXIT the market.  That is as simple as it is, that is my TRADING PLAN!!

The ideal would have been to be able to enter here:


But this happened during the night, I was fast asleep.  What I have at the moment is less ideal, but I still have an entry point - little bit more risky, for I don't know how long this signal is going to last:


And then a more conservative entry would be to maybe wait and see if I can get something like this:


I don't know whether the market will do this and hand me such an opportunity - but if it does it probably means I have got a confirmation on my signal.  It is risky though for this market could run away and then I missed the boat. 

On the other hand, this market could collapse, then I'd be happy that I did not enter the market.

I can't make those choices for you, but for me, this is my plan:


 

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Trading Analysis / IDENTIFYING an OPPURTUNITY

« on: October 18, 2022, 11:39:33 am »

I will use a simple example to explain (1) how I identify an opportunity to enter the market, (2) formulate my trading plan and (3) some thoughts on strategy.

Identify Opportunity
I am a big fan of using 1-2-3's and stuff to identify potential opportunities in the markets..  You may go here - https://investdifferently.info/themarket.html - for a brief overview of my favorite "1-2-3" method. 

YOU..., on the other hand are completely different and you probably have your own way of identifying opportunities.  You may be looking at the RSI and say a MACD indicator to identify a likely buy / sell area.  Or you may use a very simple two moving averages strategy, if the short-term MA moves above the long-term MA you buy and if it drops below the long-term MA then you sell.  The method does not really matter, as long as you have SOME METHOD to identify when to buy and when to sell.  As long as I have a METHOD, I can formulate a trading idea.  Some will work and some not.  Some signals will be great and hand us a profit, and some will not, resulting in losses.  Note - SIGNALS:  the method is not at fault, the signal the method generates is - some are false signals, or lasts only for a very short time.

So this is my first step - to use my favorite method to identify an opportunity to enter.  For the rest of this example I will use MY TECHNIQUE - but note I am not trying to promote my technique, it is just my favorite way.   I tried many different methods and this one was the easiest for me to understand and quite frankly, I don't need anything more.  But note that it applies equally well to YOUR TECHNIQUE, whatever that technique might be - this is not what makes or breaks the trade, this is just used to IDENTIFY me an opportunity.

OK..., so my mentor said - "a chart is a chart is a chart"  You can look at anything that we plot over time, weather patterns, orders placed on weekends at MacDonalds, or prices for crude oil - it does not matter, one chart gives us the same picture as another chart.  The point is there is a "LAW of CHARTS" - a law that describes how charts works (Google it!) - and you can download that law - or send me a mail and I'll send you the law, its free.  (The law does not care about what kind of chart it is (bar or candlestick or line chart) or what that chart represents - it is not a law of markets - it is a law of charts)

I use that law, for it is a very simple law and I like the simplicity.

So here is a chart - of a crypo-currency, well not really a currency, a crypo coin, or a crypo token - just some arbitrary crypo thingy.  It is a line chart, that is all that is available.
 

And here I applied the law of charts over it:
 

I have a 1-2-3 and a breakout above the #2 point!  And that is an entry signal!!

This signal simply says - the market is most likely going up.
Will it continue to go up?  I don't know
For how long will it go up?  I don't know
Is this maybe a false signal?  I don't know

I don't know anything else.  All I know is there is a signal - by my chosen method - I don't know anything else about this signal, how strong it is, how long it will last, will it actually last; I know nothing more about it, only that it gave a signal that "maybe" it is now going up.  And if you used a short-term and long-term Moving Average, maybe your method also gave you a signal - it depends on the MA's you used. 

All we have here is a signal that says:  "maybe the market is going up"

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Other Trading / Re: Forex Trading

« on: August 24, 2020, 10:04:21 pm »

Hi Mezinrot, moved your question to a more relevant place on the discussion board. 
I started with FXCM many years ago, they are good enough.  I did not make it trading FOREX though.  I changed to options and that did the trick for me.  I still trade forex, but using options.  I am currently compiling an online course of trading forex using options, unfortunately it is not ready yet.  But maybe I could refer you to this place - https://www.youroptionsforecast.com/forum/index.php- register on that forum please and ask about forex.  From there I, or one of others may be able to refer you to material on trading forex with options.

Brokers, I am using Interactive Brokers (IB), find they give me everything I need - platform on both my PC and mobile, direct markets access (no spreads) very low commission ($3.40 roundturn on a  full size forex contract).  But it is a very broad question - depends on your needs, also on the money you have available to start with - IB's starting balance is quite onerous.  There are many good brokers to choose from

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Questions about Options Explorer / MOVED: Forex Trading

« on: August 24, 2020, 09:46:45 pm »

Moved to this board Other Trading.  More relevant to General Trading

http://www.optionsexplorer.co.za/forum/index.php?topic=356.0

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Trading Analysis / Re: SYNTHETIC OPTIONS

« on: December 03, 2019, 08:50:01 pm »

And here a more recent case:



Natural Gas on Friday made an extra-ordinary long move down.  Yesterday it opened slightly higher.  So you could Long a Call option, 0.4 delta (NG trading at low IV) and entered a stop-order to short NG one tick below Friday's close.  The short stop-order will convert the position to a synthetic long put if prices drop.

Today's move saw you making $1350 profit per contract!!  The short stop-order were never necessary!

8

Trading Analysis / Re: SYNTHETIC OPTIONS

« on: December 03, 2019, 08:38:37 pm »

Here is a Trade Example. 



Wheat has made a clear 1-2-3 high on a daily chart and yesterday's price bar took out the low of the last up bar (the bar that defined the #3 point).  This is a TTE entry point.  IV is low.  We want to be short Wheat and decide to buy a put option (510 strike price, 0.4 delta)



Here is the position a couple days later..  I don't like this at all, Wheat went down for our entry day only, then immediately corrected.  It has now taken out the #2 point, but immediately formed a reversal bar (new low, but bar closing opposite direction), which is usually a strong signal of a reversal in prices.  I am worried about my position and enter a stop order to long the Wheat Futures one tick above the high of yesterday's price bar. 



Remember this is a buy-stop order, I don't buy the futures yet, I have a resting order to long the futures if the price moves up.  If the price does not move up, I stay with my long put, which is slightly in the money ($68 to be exact).  If prices does move up, my order will execute and my long put will convert into a Synthetic Long Call - I would have effectively reversed my position in the market.



This is exactly what happened!  As prices traded back up, my stop order executed and I went long wheat at 513.8.  My long put converted into a synthetic long call.  At this point in time I am sitting on $692 profit!!

The "synthetic option" allowed me to reverse direction, save my trade and went from a possible losing position into a winning position.


It is not in everyone's nature though to reverse direction - I had to first admit that I was wrong and reverse my opinion of the market !!

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Trading Analysis / Re: SYNTHETIC OPTIONS

« on: December 03, 2019, 07:56:33 pm »

Let us look at this graphically. 

Here is a Long Call OTM on Wheat.  Call 525 Strike, Wheat is trading at 517.25.  Delta is 0.42


Now instead we Long the 525 Strike PUT, then we LONG the FUTURES:


There is ZERO DIFFERENCE between these two positions.  They are setup entirely differently - the one is a long call, the other is a combination long put long futures, but the resulting position is 100% exactly the same!

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Trading Analysis / Re: SYNTHETIC OPTIONS

« on: December 03, 2019, 07:35:28 pm »

HOW TO SET IT UP?

Think about the Delta! 

• A Long Futures is +1
• A Short Futures is -1

Now combine that with the delta on your option to swap from a positive delta to a negative delta, or vice versa from a negative delta to a positive delta!!

Therefore:

• A LONG CALL (positive delta, less than 1) combined with [ -1 ] (short futures) will give you a negative delta!  Long Call at 0.4 delta, PLUS Short Futures at -1 delta = 0.4 - 1 = -0.6  The OTM Long Call became an ITM Long Put
• A LONG PUT (negative delta, larger than -1) combined with [ +1 ] (long futures) will give you a positive delta!  Long Put at -0.6 delta, PLUS Long Futures at +1 delta = -0.6 + 1 = 0.4  The ITM Long Put became an OTM Long Call
• A SHORT CALL (negative delta, larger than -1) combined with [ +1 ] (long futures) will give a positive delta!  Short Call at -0.45 delta, PLUS Long Futures at +1 delta = -0.45 + 1 = 0.55  The Short Call became a Short Put
• A SHORT PUT (positive delta, smaller than 1) combined with [ -1 ] (short futures) will give a negative delta!  Short Put at 0.55 delta, PLUS Short Futures at -1 delta = 0.55 - 1 = -0.45  The Short Put became a Short Call

WARNING:  Be careful if your delta's are very small !!  A 0.1 delta will become -0.9 : you go from FOTM to DITM!  Where your risk exposure was 10%, it is now 90% !!  It may be better to stick to 0.4 - 0.6 delta options to limit the risk when you switch!!

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Trading Analysis / Re: SYNTHETIC OPTIONS

« on: December 03, 2019, 07:10:42 pm »

A SYNTHETIC OPTION, if used correctly, is a very handy tool to have in your arsenal.  It simply says - instead of setting up the option (Long or Short; Call or Put) directly by buying / selling the option - we setup the exact same position using the opposite option in combination with a Futures.

Therefore instead of Buying a Put, we Buy a Call (the opposite) and then Short the Futures.  Or instead of Shorting a Put, we Short a Call (opposite) and then Long the Futures.

Before I show it to you..- WHY IN THE WORLD WOULD I WANT TO DO THAT !?
In essence, we are reversing direction without getting out of the market!  If I am long a futures and then go short a futures, the two cancels each other out and I am out of the market.  However if I am Long a Call option and go short the futures, the Call becomes a Put - I am now long a Put.  Where before I profited when prices went up, I am now profiting when prices goes down!  I have reversed my position in the market!

WHEN DO WE WANT TO DO THAT?

• I do it frequently trading for example Crude Oil intraday on a 15 minutes chart.  Crude can very quickly switch direction.  It really likes to make large moves in a direction and then late afternoon reverse direction.  I like to ride it in the one direction using an ATM option (maybe slightly OTM, like a 0.45 delta), then when it reverses direction - on a 1-2-3 on a 15 minute chart, or after a reversal bar, I trade directly in the futures to also switch direction.  For example I buy a 55.5 Put when the market trades at 55.9.  the market drops to 54.5 - I have roughly $500 profit at this point.  It now looks like it wants to reverse, so I Long a Futures.  The market goes back up to 55.0.  I take $500 on my long futures and $225 on my long Put.  If I am wrong, I am very quick to get out of the futures again and then take profit on the Put.
• It works well for a level market, where it whips up-and-down-and-up-and-down!  When at the bottom you buy a call, when at the top you short the futures, swapping to a long put, at the bottom you buy out of the futures again you are back into a long call.  This way you ride the market all the way - as it goes up and down, you ride it up and down as well.  Note this is if the IV is low.  With a high IV, you Short a Put when it is at the bottom of the range, when at the top of the range you Short the Futures (swapping to a Short Call) etc.
• It works well if we are not 100% certain of market direction - or we want to attempt to get in early - not waiting for an actual signal - thus we get in into one direction and then be prepared to immediately switch direction if we are wrong about the market!For example the market made an extraordinary long bar down - you know typically after such a move it tends to correct back up, so you buy a call (or short a put) then enter an order to short the futures directly below the low of the long bar - in other words if you are wrong and the downwards move continues, you switch direction on your option, giving you a chance to get out with a small loss, or maybe even a profit.  If you were right, your futures order would never have triggered and you will make good money on the correction!
• I also use it to setup trading strategies, for it gives me more control.  Say I would like to short strangle the market (neutral market) - which is selling a call above the market and selling a put below.  The market is at the top of the range.  Instead of selling a Put and a Call; I Short 2 x Calls and Long the Futures (the one short Call is the [Short Call] part of my trade.  The other Short Call combined with a Long Futures is a Synthetic Short Put and forms the [Short Put] part of my trade.  INSTEAD though:  I Short the two Calls and then enter the Long Futures as a stop order above my market range.  If the market immediately drops, I make profit on two Short Calls, I am a happy trader.  If the market instead trades up, my Long Futures will trigger converting into the strangle !!

Once you have mastered the technique, you will find there are many more strategies where you may employ this principle - it is a VERY HANDY tool!!  (But that said, it is an advanced topic - you have to really understand about long and short and calls, puts and futures combinations)

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Trading Analysis / SYNTHETIC OPTIONS

« on: December 03, 2019, 06:26:59 pm »

I have a user who posted two questions:

• Please explain with examples how to use Synthetic Options
• Please explain with examples how a Calendar Spread works

I will address these in two separate discussion topics - please feel free to participate.

Herewith the Synthetic Option...

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Trading Ideas using Options Explorer / Re: Lean Hogs (HEM19) : 18 April 2019

« on: April 23, 2019, 05:19:08 pm »

My implementation of this trade idea went as follows:



When I entered, LH were trading at around 96.5, which was in the middle between two strikes.  Being unable to determine the ATM strike, I went short a 97 Call and a 96 Call respectively.  I went Long the futures on receiving the second fill (second option) - which happened to be at 96.65.

The weekend saw the Volatility drop quite fast and the trade was sitting at $420 profit overnight (the opening up of our trading funnel is typical for a drop in IV with short options).  Price threatened the bottom range of the trading range, but I decided to stay in, see whether price will go back up into the trading range.  The open today saw prices gap down below the trading range.  As this was beyond the envelope in which prices were trading, and the structure we were targeting, it was a sign for me to get out.  I waited until after the opening jitters, then went out on a stop order with the Futures.  The moment the futures was filled I tried to get out of the two call options. 

I feel I was a bit bullied by the market at that point.  Theoretical profit in the position was around $330.  When eventually I got out, I only pocketed a profit of $220.  I am not happy with that, somehow the market bullied me out of $100.  But I'll take my $220 - it is not bad for a weekend trade.

To put this trade into perspective:  Margin requirement for this trade was $2075.  Profit was $220 in 6 days.
This is a return on margin of (220/2075) = 10.6% Return on Margin in 6 days (or 645% Annualised Return on Margin)

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Trading Ideas using Options Explorer / Lean Hogs (HEM19) : 18 April 2019

« on: April 18, 2019, 02:51:36 pm »

Lean Hogs is trading at extremely high Implied Volatility - an ideal condition for shorting options and taking profit on time decay.  With the Easter weekend ahead of us, US markets will be closed Friday, Saturday and Sunday - at least three days of time decay in the options that we can bank.

Here is Lean Hogs (looking at the June contract; the May contract will work as well, maybe even better, depending on the strategy that you would like to implement):



Lean Hogs has entered a trading range - characterised by the typical /\/\ pattern.  We do not know how long it will stay in this range before breaking out to one side.  Neither do we know which side it will break out to when it breaks out.  All we know at the moment is that it is trading in this range.

The strategy below makes profit when prices are trading in a trading range.



The strategy is to short both a Call option and a Put option.  The market can at most take out one of these two positions (it can either go up or down, it cannot move up and down simultaneously).  Therefore we use the premium on the one position to buy us some space on the other position; then we wait for time to run out - the time decay on the option, because of the high IV, is quite severe.  The longer this market stays level (in a range) the more money we will make.  We exit this trade when prices break out of the trading range (or when prices threaten our break-even lines).

There are five ways to setup this trade.  The first three are Master strategies, the final two Advanced strategies; the first two is better done on the June contract (simply because there is not enough liquidity in the futures market for May); the remaining three will work equally well in the June as well as the May contract - with faster time decay in the May contract (thus more advantageous - note the June contract shown in the picture above). 

To guide your strategy - remember that you want to sell both a Call and a Put option, for strategies 1,2&4, they need to be ATM (at the money), for strategy 3 they need to be ITM (in the money), for strategy 5 they are OTM (out the money, the further out you move, the less the risk, but also the less the potential profit.  Trade them according your experience (and comfort) level:

• Short two Put Options ATM, then Short the Futures (shown in graph above)
• Short two Call Options ATM, then Long the Futures
• Short a Call ITM, Short a Put ITM
• Short a Call and a Put ATM
• Short a Call OTM, Short a Put OTM - you need to move about 15 strike-intervals OTM on each option before you start reducing the risk vs. any of the other 4 strategies above, profit drops from a potential $4600 to $1200

Strategies 1 & 2 employs an advanced strategy where we combine an option and the futures to form a synthetic option; they give us more flexibility to manage the trade when things start to go wrong - but for this we need liquidity in the futures market - hence the move to the June contract.

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Trading Ideas using Options Explorer / Market Update: 12 April 2019

« on: April 12, 2019, 02:24:55 pm »

We are monitoring the markets, but at this point in time there are just simply no trades.  We are looking at Lean Hogs, Coffee, Bean Oil in particular, keeping Cotton in mind; the energy complex. 

At the moment however there are no actionable opportunities, so we stay out of the markets..